Wasilla Real Estate statistics continue to show more of the same thing we have seen for the last 6 weeks or so.  These statistics are for residential single family homes for the whole Matanuska-Susitna Borough.

That is a steady flow of pending sales and closed sales with an inventory that continues to diminish.  At this rate it is possible that the inventory will drop below 700 by next week.  But it won’t go much below that because there is already a backlog of houses ready to hit the market after the first of the year. 

At this point prices seem to be holding steady.  There are more foreclosed homes on the market which is an opportunity for people looking for fixers.  They are not affecting the existing home market because most of them are in poor condition. 

Homes have to be priced competitively to sell.  Many, perhaps most of the homes that are over $300,000 are still priced a little too high.  If sellers want them to move they are going to need to become realistic.  Buyers generally look at a lot of homes before they make their decision.  It becomes fairly easy to pick out the overpriced homes after you have been in 40 homes.

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The inventory continues to drop for the winter season while the sales appear to hold fairly steady.  For the fourth week in a row, there are more closed sales than new listings.  This will probably continue well into January.

Once again, it is obvious that well priced, and well presented homes in this market are going to attract attention. 

I notice several homes hitting the market with construction dates of 2008.  These are builders beginning new homes now with hopes of selling them in the spring.  In addition, several of the pendings are pre-solds.  These are homes under contract, but not yet built.

This just points out that while our market is not as strong as it was 2–3 years ago, it certainly isn’t dead.  It is still a healthy market even in mid-winter.

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These statistics are for the whole Mat-Su Borough.  The vast majority of real estate transactions are in the Palmer and Wasilla areas, but this week there is one sale of remote property in the mix.

For the third week in a row, we have sold and pended more homes than were listed.  The total listings are now down to 761 which is the lowest listing count in 6 months.  I do expect listings to increase in January-May, we will have to see if the sales can keep up with the surge of new listings

The average price for new listings this week demonstrates one of the problems with using averages in statistics. If you have one house price that far exceeds the others, it skews them all. 

This is the house that caused them all to tilt upward.

• $2,700,000 for a 3,000 square foot home on 110 acres of land.  Listed by Jennifer Zimmerman of Northern Trust Realty, and Jeff Goyette of Peak Realty LLC.  This is, by almost $1,000,000, the most expensive piece of residential property in the Valley.  As you might imagine, it’s pretty spectacular.  If you can qualify for this price and would like to take a look, give me a call. My cell phone number is 907 232–7900 

If we take that house out of the mix, the other 14 new listings average $267,767. 

The article in the Anchorage Daily News last week about valley real estate used some average prices that do not give a true reading of the real estate picture.  The article talked about how the average price for vacant land dropped 40 percent in Palmer. 

While the average prices of the parcels sold certainly did drop by that amount, the value for vacant land has not dropped by nearly that amount.  The fact is, only 54 parcels sold in Palmer during 2006 and one of the parcels sold for more than two million dollars.  That significantly increased the average price for 2006 to $104, 493.  We all know that the average price for a vacant lot is much lower than that.

This year  80 parcels were sold with the highest price reaching almost $400,000.  The average price for these 80 properties was $62,399.  You can see where the ADN got the lower average prices.  But this doesn’t mean the the value for individual properties has decreased at all.

In fact, I have had a hard time proving that prices are decreasing.  The only way to prove this is to show matched pairs.  A property needs to have been purchased in the last few years and then sold again for less than it was purchased for to prove price reductions.  So far, the vast majority of the properties sold this year went for more than the price for which they were purchased. That certainly doesn’t prove that prices are decreasing. 

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Wasilla, Palmer

and all Mat-Su Borough Statistics for the week of 11/26–12/3/07

After the short week last week, this week made up for the delay.  There were 45 closings and 27 pendings this week.  Those are very healthy numbers for this time of year. 

I don’t expect the high number of closings to hold up between now and Christmas,(that is just because of closings that were delayed due to Thanksgiving), but I do think that the market is pretty healthy for the winter.  Now that we are past Thanksgiving, we have definitely hit the traditionally slow time of the year.  But the market isn’t slow!  It’s surprisingly active.

New listings have certainly dropped and that is to be expected, people don’t usually put their houses on the market just before Christmas.  But that means the houses currently on the market are getting more activity because buyers are still out there.  If this continues, we will be back to a sellers market by spring.

Look at the chart to the right.  Click on it to expand.  This is from the AKMLS system and shows the averages for the last two years.  Notice that the the new listings drop sharply every winter but the pending activity remains comparatively steady.  That is the reason I now recommend that a seller consider hitting the market before the spring rush.  You will have less competition.

Compare to previous Monday Market Memos, click here.

“This representation is based in whole or in part on data supplied by, and to, the subscribers of Alaska Multiple Listing Service, Inc. (AK MLS, Inc.). AK MLS, Inc. does not guarantee nor is it in any way responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by AK MLS, Inc. is for its own use and may not reflect all real estate activity in the market. “

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Wasilla Real Estate News Statistics for the week of Nov 19–26, 2007

All the numbers took a drastic downturn this past Thanksgiving week.  There were only 8 new listings which is the lowest number since I started the Monday Market Memo last January.  I’m sure the holiday had a lot to do with this.  We will likely see slower activity between now and Christmas.

As you would expect, pretty much all the new listings are houses that people have to sell for one reason or another.  They are moving in winter, losing their home, or just finished a spec home.   There still are quite a few buyers out there ready to look at new listings so a good house entering the market at this time of year will grab peoples attention.

The total amount of listings is also down and probably will continue to drop until January or February. 

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The market continues to hum along steadily without a significant winter slowdown so far.  We will probably see the new listing numbers drop as people celebrate the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays.

As I have mentioned before, although the new listings usually show a significant decline during that time of the year, buyers do not stop looking.  If a good house hits the market buyers will be all over it.  This is actually a good time to put a well priced, clean home on the market.  You will have less competition.

New construction is still a significant part of our market.  In the last two months new construction homes have been about 1/3 of all the homes that have sold.  That is not down significantly from the hot new construction market of a few years ago…CLARIFICATION: After I posted this I realized that this is misleading.  While the percentage of new homes is not down significantly, the whole market, including new construction is off by about 20% or so from two years ago.

What has changed about new construction is the fact that more of those new homes are pre-solds.  Pre-solds are what we call new homes that are sold before construction begins.  A buyer contracts with a builder to have a house built.  The builder does not start on the construction until the home is under contract.

Pre-solds are contrasted with “specs”.  A “spec home” is one that is built on speculation by the builder hoping that he can sell it when it is finished.  About 20 percent of the current homes on the market are “spec homes”.  

It is obvious that a significant portion of the buyers are turning down the existing homes to opt for a new house.  New homes are still competing with the rest of the market although builders have had to sharpen their pencils to keep prices competitive.

We wrote an offer last week on a pre-sold and have a spec home on the market with hopes to have it finished by the end of February.  If you would like help with a new construction home give either Marty or Jay a call at 907 373–0999.  That number rings both of our cell phones.

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These statistics include all residential listings in the Mat-Su Borough.  This includes Wasilla, Palmer, and all the outlying areas between Talkeetna and Eureka. 

There are several surprises this week.  First, we had 35 new listings come on the market this week, 36 pendings, and 22 closed sales. Those are all healthy numbers for this time of year. 

Notice the high average price for closed sales last week.  That number has been hovering around $200,000 for months.  Last week there were several higher end homes that closed edging the average higher. 

But the record breaker was a $1,500,000 sale of a listing by Lee Mitchell at RE/MAX of Wasilla.  I checked several times and we have no closed sales over one million dollars for the valley on the MLS…until this one.  Congratulations Lee, maybe this will break the ice and we will see lots more million dollar sales in the Mat-Su Valley.

Interest rates are still at historic lows, just over 6% with some special loans coming in in the high 5% ranges.  One of the reasons for the low value of the dollar is the low interest rates pushed by the Federal Reserve.  This, along with $800+ gold and high oil prices risks inflation.  If inflation kicks in, interest rates will rise very quickly.  Buyers who wait for lower house prices may be shooting themselves in the foot by not locking in these low interest rates now.

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The total inventory dropped significantly this week.  That’s because many homes were listed only through the end of October and the owners chose to not relist them during th holidays.

We did get thirty new listings. Of these 30 listings, six of them are foreclosed homes.  That is 20% of the new listings for the week.  Hopefully this is just an anomaly that will not be a continuing trend.

This week both the pendings and closings averaged in the mid $200s.  Quite a few higher end homes sold this week to bring the average up. 

Below to the left is the Alaska MLS chart for the valley up through Oct.  The chart to the right is for comparison and includes all the listings on the MLS system.  This includes the Valley, Kenai, and Anchorage.  It is interesting to note that the outstanding inventory in the Valley is actually lower than it is for the whole MLS. 

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October 22–29 Real Estate Statistics
Wasilla, Palmer, and the rest of the Mat-Su Valley

Below are the Statistics for this week. Our inventory is almost identical to last week.  Pendings are down.  The Average price is below $200,000. 

The accepted industry definition of a buyers market is one that has more than 6 months worth of inventory.  We currently have slightly more than 8 months worth of inventory on the market.  Compare that to some of the areas in the country that had the hottest markets during the last 5 years.

Las Vegas, Southern California, and Pheonix all have huge supplies of inventory.  Their real estate market was booming just 2 years ago and now it is bust.  Some areas of Florida have over 50 months of inventory. 

We are only into the buyers market category by a couple months.  That has some ramifications for buyers and sellers.

Sellers
It’s a buyers market.  That means that buyers have a lot of homes to look at.  If they can’t come to agreement on yours, they can try the next buyer down the street.  They are shopping price.  No amount of marketing, open houses, or staging will help if you aren’t price right.  Get the price right and it will sell.

Buyers
It’s a buyers market…but just barely.  That means that although a seller may come down to an attractive price, they aren’t going to drop by 40%.  It’s a waste of your time, and everyone elses time, to make a ridiculous offer. 

I do know of some great homes on the market right now.  I showed a brand new 3 bed, 2 bath, 2 car garage ranch this weekend priced at less than $160,000.  And I think the builder will come down from that. Give me a call, I’d love to help you get a great deal on a home.  (907) 373–0999

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Wasilla Real Estate News, Real Estate Statistics for Wasilla, Palmer and the rest of the Mat-Su Borough

The inventory dropped a little this week.  Not because we sold more houses but because fewer new listings came on the market.  People are reluctant to sell during the months of November and December.  We will probably not see the amount of new listings pick up significantly until January or February.

It is interesting to note that there are several new construction houses in this recent list of closed sales.  People are still buying new homes and builders are still building.  The days of building any old house and they will come, however, is gone.  A builder needs to do his homework before beginning a project on speculation.

I note that of the twenty three closed sales this week, eleven sold in less than 40 days and for full price.  Most of the others took some major price reductions to sell.  A couple of them were new construction houses that were on the market for a long time.

Typically, a spec house, (this is a house built by a builder on speculation), will be marketed from the time he clears the lot, sometimes before that.  But it usually actually sells about the time it is all finished, or close to finished, so they are on the market a long time.  Those tend to drive up the average days on the market.

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